Iraq plans urban warfare to thwart US The Guardian
August 9, 2002
By Brian WhitakerSaddam Hussein has told his regional officials to expect urban warfare if American forces invade, according to information received by US intelligence.
The Iraqi plan would avoid desert fighting of the kind that proved disastrous in the 1991 war over Kuwait, but would maximise casualties among US troops and Iraqi civilians.
The claims that the Iraqi leader gave a strategy briefing to officials -reported yesterday in the Los Angeles Times - originated from Iraqi defectors and opposition groups who passed them on to the US.
Although the briefing cannot be confirmed, its reported content tallies with the views of independent analysts about probable Iraqi strategy.
Iraq has no significant air power and its 2,000-plus battle tanks would be vulnerable to air strikes. But in terms of manpower it has more than 400,000 active troops and perhaps a similar number in reserve. Concentrating its troops in the cities could force the US to attack major centres of population. That would increase the risk of civilian casualties, for which world opinion would be more likely to blame the Americans than Saddam.
For the regime, it would also mean having large numbers of troops on hand to deal with any civilian insurrection.
Ultimately, Iraq believes this strategy would draw the US into street-level combat, resulting in far greater American casualties than occurred in other recent wars. "It's perfectly understandable, perfectly logical for Iraq to concentrate on the heartlands," said Daniel Neep, of the Royal United Services Institute in London. It was also "entirely likely" that Iraq would deliberately use its civilians as human shields for specific sites that might be targeted by the US.
Iraq adopted this tactic with foreigners in the run-up to the 1991 war and later, during confrontations over weapons inspectors, brought thousands of Iraqi civilians into presidential palaces to protect them from strikes.
"Street fighting and concentrating on urban warfare is the best of a bunch of bad options for Saddam Hussein," said Dominic Simpson, the Middle East head of Kroll security consultants. High civilian casualties could be a problem for the west, he added.
"One of the very few cards that Saddam has to play is the propaganda card, to undermine the moral legitimacy of the west's campaign."
But he questioned whether Iraq's urban warfare strategy would actually result in US forces getting bogged down and fighting their way into Baghdad street by street.
"My suspicion is that bringing Saddam down will not be that difficult," he said. "Once the Americans turn up I think it will be comparatively quick. But it won't be nice."
Analysts disagree as to how many of the Iraqi forces could be expected to flee or surrender once they come under attack. Some defections from the regular army could be expected, but not the elite units or the generals, Mr Neep said.
"Saddam is not the entire regime - there are a lot more people than that. The special republican guard has about 25,000 men, which is enough to make it difficult [for the US] in Baghdad. They are extremely loyal and dedicated, and would go down with Saddam," he said.
The Los Angeles Times described urban fighting as one of the most daunting scenarios that US military planners face. "Baghdad in particular is a sprawling setting, where Hussein's forces would have significant advantages," it said, noting that military targets in Baghdad are dotted among a population approaching 5 million, with an elaborate warren of bunkers and escape routes.
"US soldiers would probably have to slog through Baghdad's streets wearing chemical-weapons suits and carrying extra equipment," the paper said.