Washington Post
March 3, 2004
By Dana Milbank and Robin WrightThe terrorists probably did not plan yesterday's attacks on Iraqi Shiites to coincide with the American electoral festival of Super Tuesday. But the timing is an apt reminder that this year's presidential election is likely to be shaped by events the Bush administration cannot control.
Vice President Cheney, in a trio of interviews with cable news outlets yesterday, brushed off the attacks as a sign of "desperation" among U.S. foes -- a response the administration has used for other bloody setbacks in Iraq. But administration officials also acknowledge that there is little that can be done to stop the attacks and that such violence is likely to worsen as power is transferred to Iraqis on June 30.
That raises the danger for President Bush that the public will come to see the attacks not as an inevitable side effect of democratic progress in Iraq but as the unraveling of the nearly year-old U.S. occupation there -- the main foreign enterprise of the Bush presidency. With the presidential election looming, Bush needs to show by this fall that democracy is waxing in Iraq and violence is waning.
The administration's critics say more violence like yesterday's would discredit Bush's promise to stabilize Iraq. "Iraq goes directly to Bush's main vulnerability -- credibility," said Henri J. Barkey, a former State Department official during the Clinton administration who now teaches at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. He added: "Each bombing adds to the disenchantment of the American public and forces people to question whether this was worth it."
Bush administration officials counter that yesterday's attacks are a byproduct of U.S. progress. "What it is more than anything else is major desperation on their part, as we get closer and closer to standing up a new government in Iraq," Cheney told MSNBC yesterday. He also pointed to a "fairly significant decline in American casualties in the last couple of months."
Indeed, with fewer successful attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, worries about a Vietnam-style blood bath have diminished. But in place of the threat to U.S. interests is a growing concern that Iraq could fall into sectarian violence. Yesterday was the bloodiest single day in Iraq since Bush declared an end to major combat on May 1; the coordinated attacks on Shiite shrines in Karbala and Baghdad yesterday were the largest of 18 major attacks since then.
The attacks on the holiday of Ashura, the holiest period of the year for Shiite Muslims, come at a time when the Bush administration is having particular difficulty stabilizing Iraq and crafting an exit strategy. Two plans for the political transition have been discarded, leaving the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority back at square one in figuring out how to select a caretaker government to assume sovereignty.
For now, at least, the American public continues to share Bush's belief that the United States is winning in Iraq. "There is still remarkable optimism among the public," said Peter D. Feaver, a Duke University political scientist who has studied public opinion about Iraq. But he said that optimism has been created in part by the administration's own expressions of confidence. To keep that going, "they have to present a credible measure of success," Feaver said.
The problem is, almost every expert expects the violence to continue, if not intensify. "This is the beginning of an intensive effort that could go on for a very long time," said Kenneth M. Pollack, a former national security official in the Clinton and Bush administrations now with the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Juan R.I. Cole, an expert on Iraq and Shiism at the University of Michigan, agrees that attacks "are likely to become more frequent and more spectacular."
Bush aides said their task is to prepare the public for more violence as an inevitable part of Iraq's growing pains. "It's important to have realistic expectations, because as the terrorists grow more desperate over Iraq's success they're certainly going to grow more desperate in their tactics," said Jim Wilkinson, a deputy national security adviser.
Democrats say a sustained wave of sectarian violence would be politically devastating to Bush. "You can't have too many of these," said John Weaver, a Democratic strategist. "This sends the signal that it's not coming together or it's starting to unravel."
And even some Bush supporters, though confident Bush will win the argument over Iraq, say there is potential for concern. "Americans are more mature about this than people give them credit for, but we have to be on an upward trajectory," said Cliff May, a Republican strategist. "There has to be a perception that, even gradually, we are making progress."
Bush aides say there is no cause for panic. A senior administration official involved in Iraq policy said yesterday that the bombings were meant "to destroy the extraordinary agreement" on a new Iraqi constitution, but that there has been no rise in sectarian violence "despite the best efforts by the terrorists."
Even as the world digested news of yesterday's bombings, the administration continued with its efforts to demonstrate progress in Iraq. The Pentagon released an "Iraq Fact of the Day" announcing: "Thousands of children throughout Iraq will soon be able to participate in an Iraqi Boy Scout and Girl Scout program."
(c) 2004 The Washington Post Company